Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Bet Builder Tips & Odds

By Jason Young, Senior NFL Analyst | Published: 3 months ago | 4 min read

Buffalo Bills

American Football NFL Gillette Stadium Mon 6 Jan 01:00

New England Patriots

  1. Prediction
  2. Bet Builder
  3. Odds
  4. Player Props
  5. Stats
  6. Team News
  7. Lineups
  8. Injuries
  9. Standings

The Total Line Could Be Too Low

The Patriots and the Bills are certainly capable of exceeding the set points total line which leads us to predict Over 36.5 as a value bet at 1.91.

8 Wins in Last 10 H2H Clashes for Bills

Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets in their previous game, making it three straight victories. It was a 40-14 home win at Highmark Stadium. The Bills total gain of 348 yards was split between 97 rushing and 251 passing yards. They picked up 23 first downs and scored 5 touchdowns.

New England Patriots were beaten 40-7 at Gillette Stadium in their last game. This loss at home to Los Angeles Chargers was their sixth straight defeat. The Patriots gained 96 rushing and 85 passing yards, making 181 yards in total. They scored 1 passing TD and picked up 11 first downs.

The Bills are bidding for a third successive win against the Patriots. They previously won 27-21 and 24-21 at Highmark Stadium. In the past 10 H2H meetings, the Bills have won eight.

Expert NFL Analysis

We always have a keen eye on team news, while our NFL handicappers have their finger on the pulse by knowing the latest form. You will also find a compendium of stats which provide some valuable pointers ahead of the action.

Key Bills vs Patriots stats:

  • The 36.5 line has been covered in 10 of the last 10 Bills games.
  • The 36.5 line has been covered in 16 of the last 16 Bills games this season.
  • The 36.5 line has been covered in the last 16 Bills games this season.
  • The 36.5 line has been covered in 5 of the last 5 Patriots games.
  • The 36.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 Patriots games.
  • The 36.5 line has been covered in the last 6 Patriots games this season.
  • The 36.5 line has been covered in the last 4 games between these teams.

Bills vs Patriots Prediction

We’re confident that Over 36.5 is the value play at 1.91. We’re expecting these NFL rivals to rack up the points, so a total bet could be the way forward.

Secure more desirable odds by moving the line when you place an Over bet. You can choose from a range of options on the Totals until you’re happy with your wager.

Over 36.5 Probability

According to the sportsbooks, there’s a 52.4% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our analysts have this number between 55-60% based on their in-depth research. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

Our Pick

Over 36.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Now Bet365 logo
Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.
Published 06:26, 04 January 2025

Bills vs Patriots Bet Builder Tips

Totals Over 36.5
Spread Bills -3
Highest Scoring Half Second Half

Take a same game parlay that incorporates Over 36.5 points along with Bills to cover the -3 spread. Add in the Second Half to be highest-scoring.

The bet builder option is great for bettors wanting a personalised multi-leg wager on the same football game. It’s especially good if you have a strong view on the likely outcomes and the odds for each pick are combined.

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Bills Bills logo 23 - 17 Patriots logo Patriots

The Bills might be able to claim a victory and we’re siding with a 23-17 scoreline in their favor. A small stake can provide a big return and there are monster odds available.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Books Make Bills Moneyline Favorites

For this game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Buffalo Bills are 1.51 favorites to win and that means a 66% chance of landing a victory. New England Patriots are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at 2.66.

The spread is currently 3.5, with the total points line at 35.5. The Totals offers NFL fans an alternative way of getting involved. If you want to back Over 35.5, it’s 1.94.

Whether you are betting pre-game or in-game on the National Football League, you can feast on hundreds of team props and game lines. The selections are practically endless and it’s great to have so many options.

Player Props & Micro Betting

As an alternative to the game lines, check out the player and quarterback prop bets that are available. It’s especially great if you have a view when it comes to First, Last or Anytime Touchdown Scorer, while there are lots of other options.

Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on the NFL. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen next. Field Goal Outcome, Next Play Result and Next Drive Result are often among the options.

Best Betting Offers

Last 5 & H2H

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills logo Buffalo Bills Stats

New England Patriots logo New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

  • 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
  • 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

  • 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games
  • 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

Point Spread

Total Points

Total Points

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games
Last 10 Games on the Road
Last 10 Home Games

Team News

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Lineups

New England Patriots

Manager:
Jerod Mayo
3
Demario Douglas
6
Javon Baker
7
Jacoby Brissett
13
Joey Slye
14
Alex Erickson
16
Sione Takitaki
17
Bryce Baringer
19
Joe Milton
21
Jaylinn Hawkins
24
Dell Pettus
26
Terrell Jennings
29
Isaiah Bolden
35
Miles Battle
38
Rhamondre Stevenson
41
Brenden Schooler
48
Jahlani Tavai
49
Joe Cardona
54
Truman Jones
65
Tyrese Robinson
68
Lecitus Smith
87
Jack Westover
88
Jaheim Bell
96
Eric Johnson
97
Titus Leo
98
Jeremiah Pharms Jr.
99
Keion White

Buffalo Bills

Manager:
Sean McDermott
2
Tyler Bass
8
Sam Martin
10
Khalil Shakir
11
Mitch Trubisky
14
Mike White
22
Ray Davis
24
Cole Bishop
26
Ty Johnson
29
Brandon Codrington
39
Cameron Lewis
40
Von Miller
41
Reggie Gilliam
42
Dorian Williams
56
Javon Solomon
58
Matt Milano
64
O'Cyrus Torrence
66
Connor McGovern
69
Reid Ferguson
71
Quinton Jefferson
76
David Edwards
79
Spencer Brown
86
Dalton Kincaid
88
Dawson Knox
94
Dawuane Smoot
97
Jordan Phillips

New England Patriots Substitutes

  • 4 Antonio Gibson
  • 9 Kayshon Boutte
  • 10 Drake Maye
  • 15 Marte Mapu
  • 23 Kyle Dugger
  • 27 Marcellas Dial Jr.
  • 28 Alex Austin
  • 31 Jonathan Jones
  • 33 Anfernee Jennings
  • 45 Monty Rice
  • 53 Christian Elliss
  • 59 Vederian Lowe
  • 64 Layden Robinson
  • 69 Cole Strange
  • 70 Caedan Wallace
  • 71 Mike Onwenu
  • 75 Demontrey Jacobs
  • 81 Austin Hooper
  • 84 Kendrick Bourne
  • 91 Deatrich Wise Jr.
  • 92 Davon Godchaux
  • 95 Daniel Ekuale

Buffalo Bills Substitutes

  • 0 Keon Coleman
  • 1 Curtis Samuel
  • 3 Damar Hamlin
  • 4 James Cook
  • 5 Kaiir Elam
  • 9 Taylor Rapp
  • 13 Mack Hollins
  • 17 Josh Allen
  • 31 Rasul Douglas
  • 44 Joe Andreessen
  • 46 Ja'Marcus Ingram
  • 48 Edefuan Ulofoshio
  • 57 A.J. Epenesa
  • 62 Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
  • 68 Tylan Grable
  • 70 Alec Anderson
  • 74 Ryan Van Demark
  • 77 Will Clapp
  • 85 Quintin Morris
  • 90 DeWayne Carter
  • 98 Austin Johnson
  • 99 Casey Toohill

Buffalo Bills Injuries

Type
Name
Info
Terrel Bernard
Quadriceps
Shane Buechele
Neck
Travis Clayton
Shoulder
Tommy Doyle
Knee
Damar Hamlin
Ribs
Cam Lewis
Shoulder
Taylor Rapp
Neck
Curtis Samuel
Ribs
Brandon Shell
Undisclosed
Baylon Spector
Calf

New England Patriots Injuries

Type
Name
Info
David Andrews
Shoulder
Jake Andrews
Knee
Christian Barmore
Illness
Ja'Whaun Bentley
Pectoral
Ben Brown
Concussion
Kyle Dugger
Ankle
Christian Gonzalez
Concussion
Hunter Henry
Foot
JaQuae Jackson
Knee
Curtis Jacobs
Concussion
Anfernee Jennings
Knee
Marcus Jones
Hip
Titus Leo
Ankle
Drake Maye
Hand
Chukwuma Okorafor
Personal
Jabrill Peppers
Hamstring
Ja'Lynn Polk
Shoulder
Jaquelin Roy
Foot
Brenden Schooler
Abdomen
Sione Takitaki
Knee
Jahlani Tavai
Groin
Caedan Wallace
Ankle
Oshane Ximines
Knee

Previous Buffalo Bills Lineups

30 Dec NFL
Jets 14-40 Bills
23 Dec NFL
Patriots 21-24 Bills
16 Dec NFL
Bills 48-42 Lions
09 Dec NFL
Bills 42-44 Rams
02 Dec NFL
49ers 10-35 Bills
18 Nov NFL
Chiefs 21-30 Bills
11 Nov NFL
Bills 30-20 Colts
04 Nov NFL
Dolphins 27-30 Bills
28 Oct NFL
Bills 31-10 Seahawks
21 Oct NFL
Titans 10-34 Bills

Previous New England Patriots Lineups

29 Dec NFL
Chargers 40-7 Patriots
23 Dec NFL
Patriots 21-24 Bills
16 Dec NFL
Patriots 17-30 Cardinals
02 Dec NFL
Colts 25-24 Patriots
25 Nov NFL
Patriots 15-34 Dolphins
18 Nov NFL
Rams 28-22 Patriots
11 Nov NFL
Patriots 19-3 Bears
04 Nov NFL
Patriots 17-20 Titans
28 Oct NFL
Jets 22-25 Patriots
20 Oct NFL
Patriots 16-32 Jaguars

NFL Standings Select Season

AFC East W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Bills 13 4 0 0.765 525 368 157 8-0-0 5-4-0 5-1-0 9-3-0 3-2-0 1L
Dolphins 8 9 0 0.471 345 364 -19 5-3-0 3-6-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 1L
Jets 5 12 0 0.294 338 404 -66 3-5-0 2-7-0 2-4-0 5-7-0 2-3-0 1W
Patriots 4 13 0 0.235 289 417 -128 2-6-0 2-7-0 2-4-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1W
AFC North W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Ravens 12 5 0 0.706 518 361 157 6-2-0 6-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 4W
Steelers 10 7 0 0.588 380 347 33 5-3-0 5-4-0 3-3-0 7-5-0 1-4-0 4L
Bengals 9 8 0 0.529 472 434 38 3-5-0 6-3-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 5-0-0 5W
Browns 3 14 0 0.176 258 435 -177 2-6-0 1-8-0 2-4-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 6L
AFC South W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Texans 10 7 0 0.588 372 372 0 5-3-0 5-4-0 5-1-0 8-4-0 3-2-0 1W
Colts 8 9 0 0.471 377 427 -50 5-3-0 3-6-0 3-3-0 7-5-0 3-2-0 1W
Jaguars 4 13 0 0.235 320 435 -115 3-5-0 1-8-0 3-3-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1L
Titans 3 14 0 0.176 311 460 -149 1-7-0 2-7-0 1-5-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 6L
AFC West W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Chiefs 15 2 0 0.882 385 326 59 8-0-0 7-2-0 5-1-0 10-2-0 4-1-0 1L
Chargers 11 6 0 0.647 402 301 101 5-3-0 6-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 3-2-0 3W
Broncos 10 7 0 0.588 425 311 114 6-2-0 4-5-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 1W
Raiders 4 13 0 0.235 309 434 -125 2-6-0 2-7-0 0-6-0 3-9-0 2-3-0 1L
NFC East W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Eagles 14 3 0 0.824 463 303 160 8-1-0 6-2-0 5-1-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 2W
Commanders 12 5 0 0.706 485 391 94 7-2-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 5-0-0 5W
Cowboys 7 10 0 0.412 350 468 -118 2-7-0 5-3-0 3-3-0 5-7-0 2-3-0 2L
Giants 3 14 0 0.176 273 415 -142 1-8-0 2-6-0 0-6-0 1-11-0 1-4-0 1L
NFC North W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Lions 15 2 0 0.882 564 342 222 7-2-0 8-0-0 6-0-0 11-1-0 4-1-0 3W
Vikings 14 3 0 0.824 432 332 100 8-1-0 6-2-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 1L
Packers 11 6 0 0.647 460 338 122 6-3-0 5-3-0 1-5-0 6-6-0 2-3-0 2L
Bears 5 12 0 0.294 310 370 -60 4-5-0 1-7-0 1-5-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1W
NFC South W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Buccaneers 10 7 0 0.588 502 385 117 5-4-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 2W
Falcons 8 9 0 0.471 389 423 -34 4-5-0 4-4-0 4-2-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 2L
Saints 5 12 0 0.294 338 398 -60 3-6-0 2-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-0 1-4-0 4L
Panthers 5 12 0 0.294 341 534 -193 3-6-0 2-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1W
NFC West W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Rams 10 7 0 0.588 367 386 -19 5-4-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 6-6-0 4-1-0 1L
Seahawks 10 7 0 0.588 375 368 7 3-6-0 7-1-0 4-2-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 2W
Cardinals 8 9 0 0.471 400 379 21 6-3-0 2-6-0 3-3-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1W
49ers 6 11 0 0.353 389 436 -47 4-5-0 2-6-0 1-5-0 4-8-0 1-4-0 4L
AFC Conference W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Chiefs 15 2 0 0.882 385 326 59 8-0-0 7-2-0 5-1-0 10-2-0 4-1-0 1L
Bills 13 4 0 0.765 525 368 157 8-0-0 5-4-0 5-1-0 9-3-0 3-2-0 1L
Ravens 12 5 0 0.706 518 361 157 6-2-0 6-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 4W
Texans 10 7 0 0.588 372 372 0 5-3-0 5-4-0 5-1-0 8-4-0 3-2-0 1W
Chargers 11 6 0 0.647 402 301 101 5-3-0 6-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 3-2-0 3W
Steelers 10 7 0 0.588 380 347 33 5-3-0 5-4-0 3-3-0 7-5-0 1-4-0 4L
Broncos 10 7 0 0.588 425 311 114 6-2-0 4-5-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 1W
Bengals 9 8 0 0.529 472 434 38 3-5-0 6-3-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 5-0-0 5W
Colts 8 9 0 0.471 377 427 -50 5-3-0 3-6-0 3-3-0 7-5-0 3-2-0 1W
Dolphins 8 9 0 0.471 345 364 -19 5-3-0 3-6-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 1L
Jets 5 12 0 0.294 338 404 -66 3-5-0 2-7-0 2-4-0 5-7-0 2-3-0 1W
Raiders 4 13 0 0.235 309 434 -125 2-6-0 2-7-0 0-6-0 3-9-0 2-3-0 1L
Jaguars 4 13 0 0.235 320 435 -115 3-5-0 1-8-0 3-3-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1L
Titans 3 14 0 0.176 311 460 -149 1-7-0 2-7-0 1-5-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 6L
Patriots 4 13 0 0.235 289 417 -128 2-6-0 2-7-0 2-4-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1W
Browns 3 14 0 0.176 258 435 -177 2-6-0 1-8-0 2-4-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 6L
NFC Conference W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Lions 15 2 0 0.882 564 342 222 7-2-0 8-0-0 6-0-0 11-1-0 4-1-0 3W
Eagles 14 3 0 0.824 463 303 160 8-1-0 6-2-0 5-1-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 2W
Rams 10 7 0 0.588 367 386 -19 5-4-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 6-6-0 4-1-0 1L
Buccaneers 10 7 0 0.588 502 385 117 5-4-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 2W
Vikings 14 3 0 0.824 432 332 100 8-1-0 6-2-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 1L
Commanders 12 5 0 0.706 485 391 94 7-2-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 5-0-0 5W
Packers 11 6 0 0.647 460 338 122 6-3-0 5-3-0 1-5-0 6-6-0 2-3-0 2L
Seahawks 10 7 0 0.588 375 368 7 3-6-0 7-1-0 4-2-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 2W
Falcons 8 9 0 0.471 389 423 -34 4-5-0 4-4-0 4-2-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 2L
Cowboys 7 10 0 0.412 350 468 -118 2-7-0 5-3-0 3-3-0 5-7-0 2-3-0 2L
Cardinals 8 9 0 0.471 400 379 21 6-3-0 2-6-0 3-3-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1W
49ers 6 11 0 0.353 389 436 -47 4-5-0 2-6-0 1-5-0 4-8-0 1-4-0 4L
Saints 5 12 0 0.294 338 398 -60 3-6-0 2-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-0 1-4-0 4L
Bears 5 12 0 0.294 310 370 -60 4-5-0 1-7-0 1-5-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1W
Panthers 5 12 0 0.294 341 534 -193 3-6-0 2-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1W
Giants 3 14 0 0.176 273 415 -142 1-8-0 2-6-0 0-6-0 1-11-0 1-4-0 1L
NFL Team W L T PCT PF PA N. Pts Home Road Div Conf Last 5 Strk
Lions 15 2 0 0.882 564 342 222 7-2-0 8-0-0 6-0-0 11-1-0 4-1-0 3W
Chiefs 15 2 0 0.882 385 326 59 8-0-0 7-2-0 5-1-0 10-2-0 4-1-0 1L
Vikings 14 3 0 0.824 432 332 100 8-1-0 6-2-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 1L
Eagles 14 3 0 0.824 463 303 160 8-1-0 6-2-0 5-1-0 9-3-0 4-1-0 2W
Bills 13 4 0 0.765 525 368 157 8-0-0 5-4-0 5-1-0 9-3-0 3-2-0 1L
Ravens 12 5 0 0.706 518 361 157 6-2-0 6-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 4W
Commanders 12 5 0 0.706 485 391 94 7-2-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 9-3-0 5-0-0 5W
Packers 11 6 0 0.647 460 338 122 6-3-0 5-3-0 1-5-0 6-6-0 2-3-0 2L
Chargers 11 6 0 0.647 402 301 101 5-3-0 6-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 3-2-0 3W
Broncos 10 7 0 0.588 425 311 114 6-2-0 4-5-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 1W
Texans 10 7 0 0.588 372 372 0 5-3-0 5-4-0 5-1-0 8-4-0 3-2-0 1W
Rams 10 7 0 0.588 367 386 -19 5-4-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 6-6-0 4-1-0 1L
Steelers 10 7 0 0.588 380 347 33 5-3-0 5-4-0 3-3-0 7-5-0 1-4-0 4L
Seahawks 10 7 0 0.588 375 368 7 3-6-0 7-1-0 4-2-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 2W
Buccaneers 10 7 0 0.588 502 385 117 5-4-0 5-3-0 4-2-0 8-4-0 4-1-0 2W
Bengals 9 8 0 0.529 472 434 38 3-5-0 6-3-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 5-0-0 5W
Cardinals 8 9 0 0.471 400 379 21 6-3-0 2-6-0 3-3-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1W
Falcons 8 9 0 0.471 389 423 -34 4-5-0 4-4-0 4-2-0 7-5-0 2-3-0 2L
Colts 8 9 0 0.471 377 427 -50 5-3-0 3-6-0 3-3-0 7-5-0 3-2-0 1W
Dolphins 8 9 0 0.471 345 364 -19 5-3-0 3-6-0 3-3-0 6-6-0 3-2-0 1L
Cowboys 7 10 0 0.412 350 468 -118 2-7-0 5-3-0 3-3-0 5-7-0 2-3-0 2L
49ers 6 11 0 0.353 389 436 -47 4-5-0 2-6-0 1-5-0 4-8-0 1-4-0 4L
Panthers 5 12 0 0.294 341 534 -193 3-6-0 2-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1W
Bears 5 12 0 0.294 310 370 -60 4-5-0 1-7-0 1-5-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1W
Saints 5 12 0 0.294 338 398 -60 3-6-0 2-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-0 1-4-0 4L
Jets 5 12 0 0.294 338 404 -66 3-5-0 2-7-0 2-4-0 5-7-0 2-3-0 1W
Jaguars 4 13 0 0.235 320 435 -115 3-5-0 1-8-0 3-3-0 4-8-0 2-3-0 1L
Raiders 4 13 0 0.235 309 434 -125 2-6-0 2-7-0 0-6-0 3-9-0 2-3-0 1L
Patriots 4 13 0 0.235 289 417 -128 2-6-0 2-7-0 2-4-0 3-9-0 1-4-0 1W
Browns 3 14 0 0.176 258 435 -177 2-6-0 1-8-0 2-4-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 6L
Giants 3 14 0 0.176 273 415 -142 1-8-0 2-6-0 0-6-0 1-11-0 1-4-0 1L
Titans 3 14 0 0.176 311 460 -149 1-7-0 2-7-0 1-5-0 3-9-0 0-5-0 6L

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